Indian Elections 2009

Indian Elections 2009

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Archive for Rahul Gandhi

UPA confident of forming the next government

With 261 seats in it’s bag, the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), is confident of getting support of 11 additional MPs to cross the magic number of 272 needed for a majority in the parliament. Speculation is rife in main stream media that the parties that constituted the fourth front (RJD,SP and LJP) will not be invited to support the UPA government; instead the UPA will rely on like-minded independents and smaller parties to make up for the shortfall.

Apart from the Congress party that won 206 seats on it’s own, the UPA consists of Sharad Pawar’s NCP, M. Karunanidhi’s DMK, Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress and Farooq Abdullah’s National Conference, who won the remaining 55. Leaders of these four parties are expected to be part of the new cabinet. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi is also expected to join the cabinet.

The PM, Dr. Manmohan Singh, will give his resignation to the President on Monday who will ask him to continue as the interim-PM. The Election Commission will present the list of successful Lok sabha candidates to President Pratibha Patil on Monday evening.

Dr. Manmohan Singh is expected to be sworn in as the PM either on 20 or 22 May 2009.

Congress hopes to patch up with the Left after the polls.

Congress leader, Rahul Gandhi said today that he was sure of left’s support of Congress PM after the elections. This indicates intense negotiations behind closed doors between the Congress and the left parties.

It could also mean that Manmohan Singh will step down as PM and Rahul Gandhi will take over. The left parties were opposed to Manmohan Singh specially his foreign policies (like the Nuclear treaty with the US) Congress is hopeful that the left front will be fine with Rahul Gandhi as the PM.

This public announcement takes us back to the question we raised in one of our previous post - If Trinamool Congress and Congress are allies and Left parties support Congress; then jTrinamool and Left parties allies or adversarie

Rahul Gandhi to be Congress’ PM candidate after the elections ?

Indian Leaders logo While the Congress has “officially” denied that Rahul Gandhi will be their PM candidate instead of Mr. Manmohan Singh, the sound bites have been the opposite in the past few days. Top Congress leaders, including Priyanka Gandhi and PM Manmohan Singh himself, have made statements promoting Rahul Gandhi as the future PM.

It appears that Congress is fishing for public reaction to Rahul Gandhi becoming the next PM should the UPA win the elections. Congress is treading softly this time in promoting Rahul Gandhi, given the strong negative public reaction in the last election to the prospect of Sonia Gandhi becoming the PM.

It is our analysis that Congress will let the confusion to prevail over who will actually be their PM candidate - Manmohan Singh or Rahul Gandhi. But don’t be surprised if Rahul becomes the PM if UPA wins handsomely this summer.  And of course, Dr. Singh will get the brickbats should the UPA fail to do so.

Why does our media toe the government line ?

As the elections are coming closer, the main stream media (MSM) appears to be toeing the official government line. News articles are reporting the achievements of the UPA government and highlighting the fringe elements in the opposition parties to belittle their qualifications to rule the country.  The press has been emphasizing the age factor of NDA Prime Ministerial candidate, Mr. L.K. Advani, while ignoring his experience. On the other hand, articles on Rahul Gandhi show his youth in positive light, downplaying his nepotistic rise and relatively little experience. Of late there have been many articles emphasizing the in-fighting in BJP and lack of strong National Leaders in the party.

India has also been affected by the global recession that has hit the Western countries severely. It has been predicted that Indian economy will severely slowdown and there are bound to be many layoffs leading to increased unemployment. But very voter will notice how the word “Recession” is seriously avoided in the MSM sites. There are daily articles quoting the President, PM, FM, Congress President and assorted government sources on how we should be in recovery and growing pretty soon. The Indian electorate is smart enough to understand that the economic recession is not of Congress’ making. It is a direct result of the global economic crisis. So let us not insult their intelligence by pretending that it is a temporary “downturn” which will be resolved in a few months. It is not everyday that the US President contemplates a stimulus package of over a Trillion dollars and so the global recession is a serious crisis facing us.

This isn’t the first time that the media has been swayed by the government’s propaganda and trashed the opposition. In the previous Lok Sabha elections as well, it went overboard emphasizing the “India Shining ” slogan of the then-ruling NDA government. So high was the hype that majority of the Indians were made to believe that the election of Mr. Vajpayee as the next PM of India was a mere formality. Similar questions were asked in the media then about “Where was Sonia Gandhi” and she and the Congress were all but written off her. Other parties like BSP, SP and the left parties were regarded as too insignificant to even be mentioned beyond a footnote.

For sure after the election results, the media suddenly woke up to the fact of 400 million poor in Shining India who had voted against the NDA and for the ‘pro-poor’ parties. After a 180 degree turn, the Media began hailing the victors of the last elections as the leaders who had truly felt the true pulse of the nation and snatched victory from certain defeat.

It is high time the fourth estate took a balanced view of all the political parties and not play favorites. Else they will reduce themselves to being merely a propaganda material for the political party they are promoting. The responsibility of the media is to make the electorate aware of all their options so that they can take a informed decision when electing the next government.

Who will be the next PM of India ?

The two main political alliances - UPA led by Congress and NDA led by BJP - have announced their Prime Ministerial candidates. NDA has declared L K Advani as it’s prime ministerial candidate, while Sonia Gandhi has hinted that Manmohan Singh would continue as the PM should the UPA win the coming Lok Sabha elections.

However, noises have started coming from both Congress and BJP on the possibility of different PM candidates. Leaders in Congress, like Pranab Mukherjee, have been touting Sonia Gandhi’s son, Rahul Gandhi, as the next PM .

Former Vice-President and BJP leader Bhairon Singh Shekhawat on the other hand has insisted on contesting the Lok Sabha elections and even  questioned the candidacy of L K Advani for the PM post. He has got the backing of NCP, led by Sharad Pawar, for this.

For now, the question has been answered by spokesmen of both parties that there is no change in their PM candidates. However, as we get closer to the elections one can expect more such noises from within both the parties.

Rahul Gandhi as PM candidate?

One of the big buzzes coming from the Congress I camp after it’s successful performance in State Elections 2008, is that Rahul Gandhi could potentially be Congress’ PM candidate for the coming Lok Sabha elections.

Many Congress leaders on Monday attributed the party’s success in winning three out of five states, to Rahul’s election tours in these states. He is already being hailed as the youth icon in the party.

So far, Congress has not officially declared it’s PM candidate for the coming Lok Sabha elections.  In the past, Dr. Manmohan Singh has been mentioned as a potential candidate

The Congress party has till now limited Rahul Gandhi’s role on tough terrains to strategic appearances. It has preferred a calibrated build up also to guard against any perception about its being keen to hand him the reins of PMO immediately.
If the BJP had defeated the Congress in Delhi elections, the brickbats would have been targeted at the PM or Shiela Dikshit. Now with a positive outcome that negates the perception of Congress being on its way out, the party “loyalists” are lining up with flowers to feliciate their leader.

Election Results

Total seats : 543

Party Won
UPA / कांग्रेस+ 262
NDA बीजेपी+ 159
Third Front / लेफ्ट+ 80
Others / अन्‍य 42

Opinion Polls

Source UPA NDA Others
CNN- IBN 215- 235 165- 185 120- 150
Star News I 257 185 96
ToI 201 195 82+ 65
India TV 178 187 121+ 57
Star News II 203 191 104+39

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